Storm X
30-11-2006, 04:31 AM
منقول للمتابعة
BOTTOM LINE ::::A temporary low of some sort has apparently been
established.
A seemingly shallow wave 4 up traced overnight has been followed by a 5th wave down into the 1.1293 support. Alternatively, we can consider that today’s low was only the end of a wave 3 down within a still unfolding impulse wave down from 1.1490 but either way a bounce of some sort is due. Initial resistance is located at 1.1315 / 1.1330-37 / 1.1355-62 and we will allow for a climb towards those areas (the first one has actually been touched already) as long as 1.1287 holds. In the event the bear returns on short notice and 1.1287 is violated, we will allow for a drop into 1.1257-64 / 1.1238, possibly 1.1168 before a more lasting near-term low forms.
I have no changes to bring to the way I currently label the price action in the daily time frame,,,,,,,
FRIDAY night :::::I have also updated the Sentiment and Open Interest chart. As of Friday night, CAD sentiment remains a neutral 53% bulls (47% USD bulls) while commercial commitments remain unchanged at levels that have been associated with each and every significant USD downturn in the past 5 years,,,,,,,,
WEDNESDAY ::::::”Today’s crackdown in the previous trend is important. Trendlines, significant nearby support levels have all been taken out; momentum has now kicked fairly strong to the downside and more importantly has violated its own short-term supports,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,”
“,,,,,,At this stage I cannot totally rule out that this setback is only a limited multi-day to multi-week pullback into 1.1250-1.1300 and a final lunge up has YET to be consumed; the increase in upside momentum at the 1.1495 high makes it impossible for me to do so. Needless to say, specs should continue to approach this market one step at a time, while commercials should tentatively prepare for the worst. The most we can expect before a truly meaningful reversal takes place is another test of 1.1525-56, but not after a healthy pullback to correct at least the rally from 1.1175. Any immediate cash need of commercial hedgers should be secured on short-term bounces.”
BOTTOM LINE ::::A temporary low of some sort has apparently been
established.
A seemingly shallow wave 4 up traced overnight has been followed by a 5th wave down into the 1.1293 support. Alternatively, we can consider that today’s low was only the end of a wave 3 down within a still unfolding impulse wave down from 1.1490 but either way a bounce of some sort is due. Initial resistance is located at 1.1315 / 1.1330-37 / 1.1355-62 and we will allow for a climb towards those areas (the first one has actually been touched already) as long as 1.1287 holds. In the event the bear returns on short notice and 1.1287 is violated, we will allow for a drop into 1.1257-64 / 1.1238, possibly 1.1168 before a more lasting near-term low forms.
I have no changes to bring to the way I currently label the price action in the daily time frame,,,,,,,
FRIDAY night :::::I have also updated the Sentiment and Open Interest chart. As of Friday night, CAD sentiment remains a neutral 53% bulls (47% USD bulls) while commercial commitments remain unchanged at levels that have been associated with each and every significant USD downturn in the past 5 years,,,,,,,,
WEDNESDAY ::::::”Today’s crackdown in the previous trend is important. Trendlines, significant nearby support levels have all been taken out; momentum has now kicked fairly strong to the downside and more importantly has violated its own short-term supports,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,”
“,,,,,,At this stage I cannot totally rule out that this setback is only a limited multi-day to multi-week pullback into 1.1250-1.1300 and a final lunge up has YET to be consumed; the increase in upside momentum at the 1.1495 high makes it impossible for me to do so. Needless to say, specs should continue to approach this market one step at a time, while commercials should tentatively prepare for the worst. The most we can expect before a truly meaningful reversal takes place is another test of 1.1525-56, but not after a healthy pullback to correct at least the rally from 1.1175. Any immediate cash need of commercial hedgers should be secured on short-term bounces.”